The orders they are cancelling now are for arrivals next March. Related, the orders they placed in April have nothing to do with the orders they are cancelling now. Why is this? Because shipments sailing in August are for orders that were placed in April. An importer who places an order on January 19th isn't expecting it to ship until May 19th - for sales in June or July.įreightWaves makes the common mistake of saying it's strange that retailers are cancelling orders, yet shipping volumes remain high. In fact, there is no correlation between the two since there is a 3 to 4 month gap between product ordered and product shipped.Ī typical importer placing an order today (August 19th) isn't expecting it to ship until January 19th - for sales in March or April. In the attached FreightWaves article, they mistakenly conflate today's inventory signals with today's shipping indicators. In importing, the first mile is the long tail of procurement and manufacturing. products that need to be manufactured before they ship. That may seem counterintuitive, however it's simply the difference between products sitting in a DC waiting to be shipped the final mile to the customer vs. Related, for international shipments, transport is the middle mile. In the first mile, an order placed this week will ship 3-4 months from now and take approximately 1.5-2 months to arrive. Unlike the final mile, an order placed with an offshore supplier this week does not ship and arrive in days or weeks. WILISC - A common misconception about imports.
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